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03/29/2010 -
There's a favorite in Duke, a little guy in Butler, a team returning to the big-time in West Virginia and a regular hardly anyone figured would get so far this season in Michigan State.
One of the most unpredictable NCAA tournaments in recent history served up four distinctly different stories for the Final Four.
Butler, enrollment 4,500, plays in the gym where they filmed the basketball classic ``Hoosiers'' and is making its first Final Four appearance. The Bulldogs play Michigan State on Saturday, which is making its sixth and perhaps most unexpected trip in the past 12 years.
The other game features West Virginia, making its first appearance since 1959, against the Duke Blue Devils, who hadn't made it since 2004 - a long time by their standards.
``It's not about the moments that I've been in, it's the moment that your players put you in right now,'' said Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, making his 11th Final Four appearance.
The Blue Devils (33-5), 78-71 winners over Baylor on Sunday, are the only No. 1 seed to make the Final Four, and as such, are the early 3-2 favorite to win it all.
Returning after a much longer time away are West Virginia and coach Bob Huggins, who made it in 1992 when he coached Cincinnati. Since then, he's been on a coaching odyssey that has included trouble with the NCAA, a heart attack and a one-year stop at Kansas State before he returned to his alma mater in Morgantown.
Through it all, he has done a lot of winning. The latest was Saturday's 73-66 upset over No. 1 Kentucky in the East Regional that put the Mountaineers (31-6) in the Final Four for the first time since guard Jerry West was their biggest star.
Huggins wants his team thinking about making it to Monday night's final, and winning there, as well.
``I talked to them about trying to be special,'' he said. ``If we can somehow find a way to win a couple more, that will be really special.''
Although Duke-West Virginia is a typical 1 vs. 2 matchup, the Michigan State-Butler game pits two No. 5 seeds, the first time that's ever happened.
The lopsided Final Four bracket is sure to reintroduce the long-debated idea of reseeding the teams once they reach the semifinals. But the idea of two No. 5s also reminds America of why it loves March Madness - because unexpected underdogs can make a run and have their day.
This was not considered a banner year for Michigan State (28-8), but there the Spartans were Sunday, defeating Tennessee 70-69 to win the Midwest Regional despite the loss of one of their top players, Kalin Lucas, who tore his Achilles' tendon last week.
``I talked to them this morning about separating themselves,'' Spartans coach Tom Izzo said. ``We've gone through a lot of things this year, not as bad as sometimes portrayed, and yet not as smooth as some years that we've had.''
They still have the core of the team that made the national final last year in an inspiring run that ended close to home, in Detroit, with a blowout loss to North Carolina. The Tar Heels didn't make the tournament this year.
Michigan State benefited from being in the most topsy-turvy region in a tournament that long will be remembered.
No. 1 seed Kansas, the odds-on favorite to win the title when the brackets came out, went out the first weekend, upset by No. 9 Northern Iowa. Tennessee took out No. 2 Ohio State, and No. 3 Georgetown was gone only a few hours into the tournament, upset by No. 14 Ohio.
The Spartans only had to beat one team seeded higher - No. 4 Maryland on a buzzer-beating 3-point shot by Lucious, the kind of shot that could make a team wonder if there might be something special going on.
Speaking of destiny, Butler (32-4) will bring a 24-game winning streak to Lucas Oil Stadium, a 10-minute drive from campus.
The Bulldogs are the first team since UCLA in 1972 to play a Final Four in their hometown - one of about a dozen intriguing story lines for America's favorite little guy.
They play and practice in Hinkle Fieldhouse, the gym where scenes from the ultimate hoops underdog story was filmed. In ``Hoosiers,'' a small Indiana school, Hickory High, makes an inspiring run to the state title. In real life, Butler isn't quite that kind of underdog, but the coach, Brad Stevens, said there's no way to play for his program without getting the gist.
``Not a week goes by where somebody who hasn't seen the fieldhouse doesn't walk into the fieldhouse and at least mouth the word, 'Hickory,''' Stevens said.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< Athletics come to terms with Gaudin
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics came to terms with
right-hander Chad Gaudin on Sunday, just three days after he was let go by the
New York Yankees.
New York is still on the hook for 25-percent of his $2.95 million salary
<< Boston College, Miami-Ohio advance to Frozen Four
Worcester, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Boston College and Miami-Ohio advanced to the
Frozen Four by winning their regional final contests Sunday as part of the
NCAA hockey tournament.
The Eagles and RedHawks will battle April 8 at Ford Field in De
<< Seton Hall to name Donovan women's hoops coach
South Orange, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Anne Donovan is reportedly going to depart
as head coach of the New York Liberty in the WNBA to take over the helm at
Seton Hall.
Several media sources, including the Newark Star Ledger, are reporting
<< Warriors snap long road skid; Nelson inches closer to Wilkens
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reggie Williams poured in 25 points and Don
Nelson inched closer to becoming No. 1 on the all-time NBA coaching victory
list as the Warriors grabbed a 121-103 triumph over the Los Angeles Clippers.
The
Billikens battle Rams in first game of CBI finals >>
Richmond, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Virginia Commonwealth Rams host the Saint
Louis Billikens tonight in the championship round of the 2010 College
Basketball Invitational at the Siegel Center in Richmond. The CBI finals is a
best-of-three seri
Kings try to gain momentum in battle with Wild >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Although Los Angeles still stands a good chance of making
the playoffs, the club isn't generating a whole lot of momentum in preparation
for the NHL's second season.
The slumping Kings will try to stop a three-game losing
Stars, Ducks hope to keep fading playoff hopes alive >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Pacific Division members currently on the outside
looking in of the Western Conference playoff picture face off tonight at the
Honda Center, where the Dallas Stars conclude a make-or-break road trip by
taking on the
Hard-charging Thrashers go for home-and-home sweep of 'Canes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a tough April on the horizon, the Atlanta Thrashers
know they need to collect as many points as possible if they hope to make the
postseason.
So far, so good as Atlanta seeks a sweep of its home-and-home series with t
My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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