Santana departs early, but Mets hold off Braves

Baseball Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johan Santana left after five innings, but limited Atlanta to just one run as the New York Mets avoided a four-game sweep at the hands of the Braves with a 4-2 win.

Santana (11-9) left the game with a strained pectoral muscle. Prior to his departure, the left-hander had given up the one run on three hits with a walk and three strikeouts to break a three-start losing streak.

David Wright hit a solo home run while Joaquin Arias also had an RBI for the Mets, who had dropped six of eight coming into the game.

Brian McCann went 3-for-4 with a solo home run while Martin Prado drove in the other run for the Braves, who had a five-game winning streak stopped.

Tim Hudson (15-6), who was named the National League Pitcher of the Month on Thursday, had a six-game winning streak snapped as he was charged with four runs -- three earned -- on eight hits with a walk and four strikeouts over seven innings.

The loss shortened Atlanta's lead in the NL East to 2 1/2 games over Philadelphia, which is currently playing Colorado.

The Mets tagged Hudson for a pair of runs in the first inning. With two outs, Carlos Beltran hit a triple to center, and he came home when Omar Infante's throw to third went into the visitor's dugout. The next three batters then reached base to set the stage for Arias, who beat out an infield single to score Chris Carter for a 2-0 lead.

The Braves got one back in the second when McCann led off the frame with a blast over the right field wall, his 20th home run of the season.

Wright's homer in the sixth extended New York's lead to 3-1.

New York tacked on another run in the seventh as Luis Castillo singled with one out, Lucas Duda reached base on an Infante error and Beltran followed with a fielder's choice to plate Castillo for a 4-1 lead.

McCann led off the seventh with a single, but Matt Diaz lined out to first which saw McCann caught off the bag for the double play. Alex Gonzalez then grounded out to end the inning.

With Bobby Parnell on the mound in the eighth, Melky Cabrera led off with a single to center for the Braves. Parnell got the next two batters out, but Jason Heyward worked a walk and a passed ball moved both runners into scoring position. Prado then hit a high chopper that Wright made a barehanded grab on, but he was unable to make a play and Cabrera scored to make it a two-run game. Derrek Lee, though, flied out to end the inning.

Hisanori Takahashi worked around a leadoff single by McCann in the ninth to pick up his third save of the season.

Game Notes

McCann eclipsed the 20-home run plateau for the third straight season and fourth time in his six-year career. His career high was 24 in 2006...Atlanta has taken eight of the 15 games with the Mets this season. These teams have one more series this season, which will take place in New York from September 17-19...Atlanta plays a three-game set in Florida starting Friday...The Mets continue their 10-game road trip in Chicago on Friday.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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