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03/11/2010 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Champion colt Lookin at Lucky tops a field of seven three-year-olds in Saturday's $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The 2009 champion two-year-old will be making his first start of the year in the 1 1/16-mile race.
The Rebel is the final local prep race before the $1 million Arkansas Derby, set for Saturday, April 10.
Trained by Bob Baffert, Lookin at Lucky will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and leave from the two post. The Rebel will be the colt's first start outside of California.
"We have a lot of questions that have to be answered," Baffert said, "wearing blinkers for the first time in a race and running on dirt for the first time. The closer you get to the Kentucky Derby (May 1), the better off you are knowing the answers."
Lookin at Lucky, owned by Karl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weltman, was second to Vale of York in the Breeders'Cup Juvenile last November, but came back to win the CashCall Futurity the following month at Hollywood Park.
"It always looks like he's stretched to win," Gomez said following the CashCall win, "but that's not the case. He's going to learn more as he goes along because he's got a super mind to him. We've got to get him to where he puts his competition away and sprints to the wire. He's full of talent and I'm getting even more excited about him."
The colt has won five of six starts for more than $1.2 million.
Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance, also trained by Baffert, will make his next start in the $800,000 Sunland Derby on Sunday, March 28.
Southwest runner-up Dublin, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, will start from the far outside post with Corey Nakatani riding. The chestnut colt will be making his second start of 2010 for owners Robert Baker and William Mack.
Dublin came from the back of the field in the Southwest to lose by just three- quarters of a length. Nakatani will be aboard the colt for the first time in the race.
In 2009 Dublin won the Hopeful at Saratoga, but then finished fifth in the Chamgagne and seventh in the Iroquois. With two wins in six career starts he has earnings of $278,623.
Taking another shot at Lookin at Lucky is Noble's Promise, trained by Ken McPeek. Noble's Promise will break from post six with Robby Albarado riding.
Owned by Chasing Dreams Racing, the colt was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and second in the CashCall Futurity. He won the Fitz Dixon Stakes at Presque Isle Downs and Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity Stakes.
Noble's Promise career record shows three wins from six starts and earnings of $733,500.
Here is the complete field for the Rebel in post position order: Cardiff Giant, Christian Santiago Reyes; Lookin at Lucky, Garrett Gomez; Royal Express, Perry Compton; Uh Oh Bango, Glenn Corbett; Pleasant Storm, Jon Court; Noble's Promise, Robby Albarado and Dublin, Corey Nakatani.
Post-time for the 50th running of the Rebel is scheduled for 6:47 p.m. (et).
<< United enters into partnership with Japanese club
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United and Japanese club FC Machida
Zelvia have entered into a technical, developmental and marketing partnership,
the Major League Soccer club announced on Thursday.
"This is particularly an exciti
<< Canadian MLB players primed for impact year
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As the boys of summer prepare for the
upcoming MLB season, the ones north of the border are sure to get some extra
attention.
Tracking some of Canada's top players for the MLB 2010 season:
HITTERS
JUS
<< Lions bring back OT Jansen
Allen Park, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Lions re-signed veteran
offensive tackle Jon Jansen and linebacker Vinny Ciurciu to one-year contracts
on Thursday. Financial terms were not disclosed.
The 34-year-old Jansen signed wit
<< Chiefs sign Urban
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Chiefs have signed wide
receiver Jerheme Urban.
Urban spent the past three seasons with Arizona after playing his first three
years in the NFL with Seattle. He has 87 career recepti
Real's Pellegrini given vote of confidence >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid Technical Director Jorge Valdano
has handed the dreaded vote of confidence to coach Manuel Pellegrini after the
Spanish giants were knocked out of the Champions League by Lyon on Wednesday.
Real
Hoyas knocked top-seeded Orange in Big East >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Wright scored 27 points and Greg Monroe
contributed 17 with 10 rebounds and seven assists, as 22nd-ranked Georgetown
pulled off a 91-84 victory over No. 3 Syracuse in the quarterfinals of the Big
East To
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Recaps >>
Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sammy Zeglinski scored a season-high 21
points to lead Virginia to a 68-62 victory over Boston College in the first
round of the ACC Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum.
Virginia (15-15), seeded ni
Hoyas knock off top-seeded Orange in Big East >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Wright scored 27 points and Greg Monroe
contributed 17 with 10 rebounds and seven assists, as 22nd-ranked Georgetown
pulled off a 91-84 victory over No. 3 Syracuse in the quarterfinals of the Big
East To
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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